انخفاض الطلب على الرهن العقاري في الولايات المتحدة مع بقاء المخاوف الاقتصادية على هامش شراء المنازل
In the final week of April 2025, mortgage activity in the U.S. hit a two-month low, reflecting growing hesitation among would-be homebuyers amid lingering concerns about the economy and job market stability. Even with a slight dip in interest rates, buyer sentiment remains fragile.
Mortgage Applications Slide for the Second Straight Week
وفقًا لأحدث البيانات من رابطة مصرفيي الرهن العقاري, total mortgage applications dropped by 2.3% compared to the previous week. More significantly, applications to purchase homes fell by 4%, marking the lowest level of purchase activity since February. This decline highlights the growing unease among buyers who are navigating not just high home prices but also uncertainty about the broader economic outlook.
Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist, summed it up:
“Mortgage application activity, particularly for home purchases, continues to be subdued by broader economic uncertainty and signs of labor market weakness.”
Buyers Are Concerned About More Than Just Interest Rates
Interestingly, the drop in buyer demand came during a week when the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dipped slightly to 6.89% down from 6.91% the week before. Under normal circumstances, this kind of rate improvement would spur more activity, especially from rate-sensitive first-time buyers. But in this case, it didn’t move the needle.
So, what’s behind the lack of enthusiasm?
- Economic concerns are outweighing rate movements.
- Job market worries are creeping in, especially as some sectors report layoffs or hiring slowdowns.
- Home prices remain elevated, making affordability a persistent issue even for those who qualify for loans.
- Consumer confidence is slipping, and buyers are more cautious about taking on large financial commitments in uncertain times.
Refinancing Activity Also Takes a Hit
It’s not just homebuyers pulling back. Refinance applications also declined, falling by 3% from the previous week. While this side of the market has already been depressed due to high rates, the continued slide shows that homeowners aren’t finding many reasons to rework their loans even with small fluctuations in rate offerings.
Year-over-year, refinance activity remains down 42%, illustrating just how far this part of the market has fallen since the historically low rate era during the pandemic.
Kan noted:
“Refinance activity dipped again, despite the slight decline in rates, and remains at very low levels. Most homeowners are still sitting on mortgages with significantly better rates than what’s available today.”
The Fed, Inflation, and What Comes Next
With mortgage activity slowing, all eyes are now on upcoming economic indicators. One of the most influential will be the monthly jobs report, which could offer fresh insights into the strength of the labor market. If signs of weakness persist, the Federal Reserve may be more inclined to adjust its current monetary policy stance.
Currently, the Fed is holding rates steady after a series of aggressive hikes in 2023 and 2024 aimed at taming inflation. But as inflation cools and economic momentum slows, there’s speculation that the Fed could consider rate cuts later in the year moves that would likely affect mortgage rates and housing activity.
Until then, the market remains in a holding pattern. Homebuyers are waiting for more affordability. Sellers, on the other hand, are hesitant to list, especially those locked into lower mortgage rates from past years.
What It Means for the Housing Market in 2025
This slowdown doesn’t mean the housing market is in freefall but it does suggest a cooling period. After years of red-hot activity, the combination of high rates, high prices, and macroeconomic anxiety is forcing both buyers and sellers to pause and reassess.
الوجبات الرئيسية:
- Mortgage demand has dropped to its lowest in two months.
- Economic uncertainty and labor market fears are keeping buyers on the sidelines.
- Refinance activity remains depressed despite slight rate drops.
- Upcoming economic data and potential Fed moves could shift the market dynamics later this year.
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