قروض إدارة الإسكان الفيدرالية (FHA) تُسهم في ارتفاع حالات التخلف عن سداد الرهن العقاري: ما الذي يعنيه ذلك لأصحاب المنازل وسوق الإسكان؟

As we move further into 2025, new data from ICE Mortgage Technology paints a mixed picture of the U.S. housing market showing relative overall stability but warning signs in specific loan sectors, particularly government-backed mortgages like FHA loans.

Mortgage Delinquencies Tick Up in February 2025

The national mortgage delinquency rate inched up to 3.53% in February, a modest increase of نقاط أساس 5 from January. At first glance, this might not sound like a dramatic change but a closer look at the data reveals something more concerning.

تقريبا 90% of the year-over-year rise in delinquent loans عن الصابون 131,000 additional past-due mortgages يمكن إرجاعها إلى FHA-backed loans, despite FHA loans making up أقل من٪ 15 of all active mortgages. This disproportionate impact puts a spotlight on the financial strain many lower- to moderate-income homeowners are facing in today’s economy.

لماذا يتخلف المقترضون من FHA عن السداد؟

FHA loans are commonly used by first-time buyers, borrowers with limited savings, and those with lower credit scores. While they help open the door to homeownership, they also tend to come with tighter margins and that’s becoming a problem in today’s economic environment.

Several factors are compounding this pressure:

• التضخم has pushed up the cost of food, gas, and everyday essentials.
• Insurance premiums and utility bills have surged in many regions.
• أسعار الفائدة remain high, which means more costly monthly payments, especially for those with adjustable-rate mortgages or homeowners facing rising property taxes.
• Pandemic savings are mostly gone, leaving many without a financial safety net to fall back on.

عندما تتراكم هذه الضغوط، يمكن أن تصبح أقساط الرهن العقاري ضحية للميزانية المتوترة.

Natural Disasters Make Things Worse in Some Regions

Certain regions are seeing more acute spikes in delinquencies. One standout example is Los Angeles, where recent wildfires have devastated communities and upended lives. In just one month, the number of delinquent homeowners in the area jumped from 700 in January to over 4,100 in February.

ويسلط هذا الارتفاع الحاد الضوء على هشاشة ملكية المساكن في المناطق التي تتأثر بشكل متكرر بالكوارث المرتبطة بالمناخ والحاجة الملحة إلى إصلاحات الإغاثة والتأمين المستهدفة.

Foreclosures Still Low But Quietly Climbing

While the current focus is on delinquencies, foreclosure activity also deserves attention. According to ICE, foreclosure starts were down 17% in February compared to January, and completed foreclosure sales fell 11%. However, these numbers remain higher than a year ago up 34% and 7% respectively.

ويشير هذا إلى عودة بطيئة ولكن ثابتة إلى المعايير التي كانت سائدة قبل الجائحة، خاصة مع انتهاء صلاحية برامج التساهل ووقف عمليات حبس الرهن العقاري في عصر الجائحة بشكل كامل الآن.

Homeowners Aren’t Refinancing

Another metric showing a slowdown is prepayment activity, which refers to homeowners paying off their mortgages early often due to refinancing or selling. That rate fell to 0.46% in February, the lowest level in the past 12 months.

Why is this happening? In part, it’s seasonal February is traditionally a slower month for home sales. But more importantly, high mortgage rates have made refinancing unattractive, and fewer homeowners are moving or selling.

ماذا يعني هذا لسوق الإسكان

Taken together, the data reveals a bifurcated market. On one side, conventional loans remain stable, with delinquencies near historic lows. On the other side, borrowers using FHA loans often those with fewer resources are struggling.

This trend could have broader consequences:

• Lenders may tighten credit standards, making it harder for marginal borrowers to qualify for loans.
• Policy makers may feel pressure to intervene, perhaps expanding FHA relief programs or reintroducing forbearance options.
• Homebuilders and housing advocates may shift focus toward more affordable housing initiatives.

افكار اخيرة

While the housing market isn’t in crisis, the growing number of FHA loan delinquencies signals deeper financial stress for a significant segment of U.S. homeowners. With rising living costs, regional disasters, and high interest rates creating a perfect storm for many households, it’s crucial that industry leaders and government officials monitor these trends closely.

The key takeaway? Even a “small” increase in delinquencies can reveal a lot about the financial health of the average American homeowner.