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Five metro areas are at huge risk of a housing market crash in 2025. It’s no surprise that three are in Florida but two are in the Sun Belt state.

A study based on January data lists Winter Haven, Tampa and West Palm Beach among the top five U.S. markets most likely to see declines in home prices in 2025.

Phoenix, Arizona is second on the list and Tucson, Arizona is fourth. All have a more than 70 percent chance of experiencing a decline, according to new research from CoreLogic.

The decline in Florida’s housing market is being driven by a sharp drop in demand, along with a growing number of residents looking to leave the state.

Immigration from other countries has slowed significantly since the pandemic, while rising house prices and high mortgage rates are making it difficult for buyers to enter the market.

Additionally, rising homeowners association (HOA) fees and rising property insurance costs – driven by an increase in natural disasters – are not only deterring buyers but also encouraging them to leave.

All five metro areas have already seen price declines recently. “We have another slowdown in prices ahead,” said CoreLogic chief economist Selma Heff.

“While this year’s cold winter and major natural disasters play a role in reducing demand, the decline in consumer sentiment suggests that potential homebuyers are wary of the short-term economic outlook and future inflation.”

Many homes in Florida sat on the market without going through a contract, forcing sellers to lower prices to sell their home.

For example, Tampa was a popular boom city during the pandemic, but had a 1.6 percent decline in sales between October 2024 and January 2025.

For Winter Haven, which also saw a surge in buyers during the pandemic, there was a 1.2% decline in home sales from October 2024 to January 2025.

West Palm Beach saw a 1.2% drop in sales between October 2024 and January 2025.

These areas became desirable for people because the weather and the ability to work remotely attracted people there.

CoreLogic economists expect price growth to continue to slow in Florida, but one of the benefits is that lower mortgage rates could encourage potential buyers to purchase a home.

“However, with the spring home buying season underway, recent improvements in mortgage rates may help invite homebuyers back into the market,” says Happ.

There may be hope for West Palm in particular, the former ‘wrong side of the tracks’ area is filling up with luxury developments, high-end restaurants and big business investments fueled by an influx of financial and technology companies.

The combination of economic growth, lifestyle appeal and investment activity could be enough to push home sales.

Elsewhere in Florida, the housing market continues to grow.

A wave of homes sat on the market longer than average in December 2024, and in that month typical homes across the country spent 70 days on the market, nine days more than the previous year.

This made it the slowest December in five years.

Florida cities with a lot of inventory that has been on the market for more than 90 days include New Smyrna Beach, Palm Coast, Panama City and Gainesville.

Meanwhile, another report released today highlighted how the housing market is increasingly fragmented across different parts of America.

Two homes in different parts of the state were listed for sale for close to $1 million around the same time earlier this year.

The modest ranch-style home in Wyckoff, New Jersey, received a whopping 25 offers and is already under contract for $200,000 above the original asking price.

Meanwhile, a six-bedroom compound in Miami with parking for three cars and a pool still has no interest, leading the sellers to lower the price.